The Fall of Kabul (2021)
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| Clockwise from top left: Afghans fleeing Kabul Airport aboard a US Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, US Marines assisting at an evacuation checkpoint at Hamid Karzai International Airport, coalition soldiers assist a child during the evacuation, armed Taliban fighters in Kabul, Taliban fighters aboard a captured Humvee (Wikipedia) |
I. Prelude:
Weeks before the offensive, in April 2021, the US State Department urged American civilians in Afghanistan to "leave as soon as possible on available commercial flights". On 1 May 2021, the Taliban and allied militant groups began a widespread offensive shortly after a significant portion of US troops withdrew from Afghanistan. Following its rapid defeat across the country, the Afghan National Army was left in chaos, with only two units remaining operational by mid-August: the 201st Corps and 111th Division, both based in Kabul. The capital city was encircled after Taliban forces had captured several cities, including Mihtarlam, Sharana, Gardez, Asadabad, as well as other districts in the east.
Projections for the longevity of the Afghan state declined significantly during the offensive. In July 2021, the US intelligence community concluded that the government of Afghanistan would collapse between six and 12 months after the departure of American troops. An early August assessment estimated that Kabul could hold out for several months. Just five days before the Taliban reached Kabul, another estimate suggested the capital would last "30 to 90 days". Finally, two days before the collapse, an estimate suggested the city would fall within the week. The day before the fall, Afghanistan Policy Lab director Timor Sharan told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that "shopping in the city today, I felt people were gripped by a sense of being stuck; stuck in an uncertain future and never able to dream, aspire, think, and believe anymore".
II. The Fall:
On 15 August 2021, the Taliban command instructed its forces to halt their advance at the gates of Kabul, declaring that they would not seize the city by force. Muhammad Nasir Haqqani, a Taliban commander, said that when he arrived at the city's gates, he did not find a single soldier or policemen in sight. Locals reported that Taliban fighters were advancing into the urban areas regardless of their official orders. The insurgents then captured the Pul-e-Charkhi prison and released all inmates, reportedly including Islamic State – Khorasan Province and Al-Qaeda militants. During the skirmishes, the Taliban were reported to have killed around 150 IS-K militants, including the former chief Mawlawi Zia ul-Haq (also known as Abu Omar Khorasani). Bagram Airfield and the Parwan Detention Facility, which held 5,000 prisoners, also fell to the Taliban. When they finally entered Kabul, Taliban fighters faced little to no resistance from the Afghan National Security Forces. The fighters began raising their flag throughout the city and pressuring police to hand over their weaponry. During the fall, at least 22 Afghan Air Force planes and 24 helicopters carrying 585 Afghan military personnel fled to Uzbekistan. One Afghan A-29 Super Tucano crashed after crossing the border, with Uzbek authorities issuing conflicting reports on the cause. Two Afghan military planes carrying over 100 soldiers also landed in the Tajikistan city of Bokhtar. The Afghan Interior Ministry announced that President Ashraf Ghani would relinquish power and an interim government led by the Taliban would be formed. Afterward, fighting died down, although many civilians remained fearful and holed up in their homes. By late morning on 15 August, Taliban negotiators arrived at the presidential palace to begin a transfer of power. Although negotiations were tense, the government declared its willingness to peacefully surrender Kabul to the rebels, and urged civilians to remain calm. Al Arabiya reported that a transitional government would be formed under the leadership of former minister Ali Jalali, but this was later denied by the Taliban.
The Taliban's advances alarmed many Kabul residents. Some locals, especially women, were fearful for the restoration of Taliban rule and reported feeling betrayed and abandoned by the Ghani government and NATO allies; a minority of residents celebrated the Taliban advance. It was reported that sales of burqas (known as chadaree in Afghanistan) climbed in the days leading to the Taliban's arrival, with the price of one increasing from ؋200 to as much as ؋3,000 (approximately $2 to $37), in fear that the Taliban would re-impose it as mandatory on women and target women who refused. One Kabul woman told The Guardian that female students had been evacuated from their university dormitories before the Taliban could reach them, and that university-educated women across the city were hiding their diplomas. Khalida Popal, former captain of the Afghanistan women's national football team, advised the women's national team players to burn their uniforms to avoid reprisals. Shops in the city were noted to have begun painting over and removing advertisements featuring women, and public posters featuring women were vandalized. Residents reported a large increase in food prices. It was reported that a significant number of vendors in Kabul were attempting to liquidate their stocks in hopes of raising enough money to escape the country. Concerns were quickly raised about the thousands of refugees who had fled Taliban advances elsewhere in the country and now found themselves stuck in Kabul. In the evening, the National Museum of Afghanistan posted a statement on Facebook stating "huge concern about safety of Museum's Artifacts and goods for Museum Employees". WHO mobile health teams in the city were placed on hold because of safety concerns, and the delivery of medical supplies via the airport was significantly impacted. The Taliban has countered accusations of discrimination against women as "propaganda".
III. Aftermath:
Since the Taliban seized all border crossings, the Hamid Karzai International Airport remained the only secure route out of Afghanistan for those seeking to escape, as the US military and its NATO partners continued to provide security for the airport and airfield. The streets of Kabul were gridlocked with residents rushing towards the airport, with some abandoning their cars to make their way on foot through the traffic. Residents who had worked with the government and international organisations reported destroying their IDs to avoid being targeted by the Taliban, and many of those fleeing for the airport took no possessions with them. Lines & Masses were reported outside of the airport and foreign embassies, with residents waiting in the heat in the hopes of being able to secure visas or flights out of the country.
After the Fall of Herat on 13 August, the US and UK announced the deployment of 3,000 and 600 of their troops, respectively, to Kabul Airport in order to secure the airlifting of their nationals, embassy staff, and Afghan citizens who worked with coalition forces, out of the country. Between 14 and 30 August 2021 (when the US military completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan), the US and its coalition partners evacuated more than 123,000 people from Afghanistan via Kabul Airport. Evacuees included foreign diplomatic staff and military personnel, foreign civilians, Afghan allies, and vulnerable Afghans such as journalists and human rights activists. The airlift was the largest non-combatant evacuation mission in US military history, with US military personnel taking 79,000 civilians through the airport and out of Afghanistan over the 18-day mission. The Afghans who were permitted to leave were those with proper credentials; many held Special Immigrant Visas or other US visas. The majority of Afghan applicants for US visas, such as those who had served as interpreters for US forces during the 20-year war, were left behind.
Those evacuated included about 6,000 Americans, the vast majority of whom were dual US-Afghan citizens. The US government estimated that, at the time of the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan on 30 August 2021, there were "a small number of Americans, under 200 and likely closer to 100, who remain in Afghanistan and want to leave". The State Department had repeatedly urged Americans to leave Afghanistan since as early as March 2021, but some chose to remain in Afghanistan. Diplomatic efforts by the US to evacuate remaining Americans who wish to leave to country continued after the military withdrawal. On 26 August, a suicide bombing occurred at Kabul Airport, killing over 180 people and injuring over 150. Among the casualties were 169 Afghan civilians and 13 American troops. Earlier that day an intelligence report indicated that a "very lethal terror attack" was likely to take place at the airport within a few hours. The Islamic State's Afghanistan affiliate (ISIL-KP) claimed responsibility for the attack. According to reports, the US gave Taliban the names of Americans and Afghan allies to evacuate. A US drone strike aimed at presumed Islamic State members suspected of planning a suicide bombings at the Kabul airport killed a family of 10 civilians in an adjacent car, including 7 children and an employee of a US aid organization. On 17 September, the Pentagon admitted the strike was a mistake.
IV Reactions:
The United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, India, and Sweden evacuated their embassies. Some countries like China, Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, and Qatar said that they do not intend to shut down their embassies. Several governments, including Sweden, Germany, and Finland, announced that they would be suspending development aid to Afghanistan. Other countries, including those with no diplomatic presence in Afghanistan, have either started or hastened efforts to assist their citizens with leaving the country. According to North Press, a Syrian news outlet, the morale of jihadist and extremist groups in regions such as Syria and Iraq, including Tahrir al-Sham, had risen dramatically following the fall of Kabul. Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center stated that he was "expecting a heavy wave of propaganda [from jihadist groups], especially with the upcoming 20th anniversary of the September 11 Attacks". The Taliban takeover was also applauded by the Palestinian militant group Hamas and some far-right supporters in North America and Europe.
British prime minister Boris Johnson blamed the United States for the Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan. Mikhail Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union who had overseen the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, argued that "NATO and the United States should have admitted failure earlier" and that the NATO campaign in Afghanistan was "a failed enterprise from the start" which was founded on "the exaggeration of a threat and poorly defined geopolitical ideas". Nobel Laureate Malala Yousafzai, who had survived a Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan assassination attempt in Pakistan in 2012, stated that she was in "complete shock" and was "deeply worried about women, minorities and human rights advocates". Afghan author Khaled Hosseini has also shared his concerns over the future of women's rights in Afghanistan, and expressed his hope that the Taliban would not return to the "violence and cruelty" of the 1990s. Human Rights Watch stated that "standing beside Afghan women in their struggle, and finding tools to pressure the Taliban and the political will to do so, is the least—the very least—the international community could do". Amnesty International stated that the situation was "a tragedy that should have been foreseen and averted" and called for governments to "take every necessary measure to ensure the safe passage out of Afghanistan for all those at risk of being targeted by the Taliban".
The fall of Afghanistan also had a negative impact on United Kingdom–United States and United States–European Union relations, with the British government leaking to the media complaints of the American government actions. In the UK, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab faced calls to resign after it was revealed he had gone on holiday to Greece just prior to the fall and had refused attempts to contact him as developments occurred. The American government, led by President Joe Biden, also faced significant domestic criticism. Former American presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, each of whom had overseen significant developments in the War in Afghanistan, also faced criticism. President Biden's approval rating dropped to 41% and only 26% of Americans said they support Biden's handling of the situation in Afghanistan. Some Republicans, including Senators Josh Hawley, Marsha Blackburn, and former Ambassador Nikki Haley, called on Biden to resign. Some American white nationalists and related extremists celebrated the Taliban takeover and American withdrawal on social media. White nationalist Nick Fuentes posted on the Telegram messaging service, "The Taliban is a conservative, religious force, the US is godless and liberal. The defeat of the US government in Afghanistan is unequivocally a positive development". Some experts warned American extremists would use events in Afghanistan to push disinformation, organize and recruit.
V. Details:
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SOURCE FOR ALL ABOVE: WIKIPEDIA
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